Drought, Economic Shocks and Civil War Violence: A disaggregated Study of Somalia

Niklas Harder together with Prof. Dr. Gerald Schneider (Uni Konstanz) & Vincent Kahl (Uni Hamburg)

Various studies have found robust correlations between economic factors and civil war onset. As this correlation suffers from severe problems of reverse causality, several authors use climate data as an instrumental variable.

The project seeks to analyze whether regional economic and climatic factors can help to explain location and timing of civil war violence. The project develops a theoretical model that differentiates between those patterns of violence that can be explained by strategic interaction and those patterns of violence that can be explained regional economic and climatic factors. The paper shows considerable and significant effects of regional factors on the spatial and temporal patterns of violence in civil war.